Your Weekly Pulse on Valley Real Estate

Nov. 5, 2018

Don't Blink...It's a Buyer's Market!

For the last few years we have worked with desperate buyers who struggled to get a home and had to compete with multiple offers on homes in hopes of winning a bid. It was a very frustrating time. Buyer's always wonder when they will get a break and that time is now. For those of you who like to "predict" the market and then make a move, well if you are a buyer NOW is your time. Prices are flattening which gives YOU more negotiating power and leverage. So buyer's don't sit this out and wait to jump when the market reverts back to a seller's market AND it will...take advantage of YOUR market now. 

16 of the 17 cities have deteriorated for sellers over the past month and only 1 (Glendale) has improved. Paradise Valley and Buckeye have fallen the most, representing both the top and bottom end of the price spectrum. The Southeast Valley mid-range strongholds of Chandler, Gilbert and Mesa are all down 7 to 9% while the Northeast Valley's Scottsdale and Fountain Hills are down 8%. The big West valley cities including Peoria and Surprise are holding up reasonably well in comparison. Phoenix continues to drift lower as it has for many months now.

The rest of the USA has been reporting weaker demand for several months now. It seems that Greater Phoenix is joining the rest of the country. However we must emphasize that the current figures represent "a return to normality" rather than a dire situation. Loan delinquency is very low and most home owners have substantial equity, so there are almost none of the dangerous conditions that prevailed in 2006 and 2007.

The market is cooling fast with weakened demand being the primary culprit. Supply remains low and still inadequate to meet demand, so sales prices continue to rise. However the fall in seller negotiation power is leading to a flattening trend in asking prices across many price ranges.

What we are witnessing in the Greater Phoenix housing market right now is nothing like a crash or a bubble deflating. However there are many clear signs that the market is softening after 3 years of growing strength. So far we have not seen enough to make any dent in the upward progress of average sales price per sq. ft. In fact this measure looks very strong in October as the market from $500K up to $3M is holding on to more momentum than the mid-range from $250K up to $500K. We should not expect to see negative changes in sales price $/SF any time soon because it is very much a trailing indicator. There are many other places to look for a change in the market and we will cover one of them today - the listing success rate.

Since exceeding 85% in mid-April the listing success rate has been gently moving lower and on October 22 we measure it below 78%.

This is still well above the long-term average but is the lowest we have seen for a long time. This means 22 out of 100 listings are failing to find a buyer instead of 15 out of 100 six months ago. Inverting the measure, the listing failure rate has increased by about 50% from below 15% to more than 22%. It sounds worse when we put it that way, but whatever way you look at it, sellers are not feeling as secure and confident as they did just a few months ago.

Buyer's....get off your fanny and take advantage of this lull...it's YOUR market!

(Data courtesy of the Cromford Report)

Oct. 21, 2018

Trick Or Treat Tour: Haunted House or Hayride?

Which Fall Favorite Will You Choose?

There are so many fun things associated with the Fall season, it can sometimes be a bit overwhelming deciding what to do, what to buy, where to go and who to go with. Below, you'll find a map highlighting the top haunted houses in the Phoenix area if a frightful good time is what you're in search of.

If a Spooktacular time just isn't your thing, below is a separate map pinpointing some of the top pumpkin patches in Phoenix if you'd like to enjoy a nice Fall farm outing with family and friends.

Wishing you all a wonderful time wherever you may go!

Posted in Current Events
Oct. 10, 2018

New Listing - 17850 W Boca Raton Road

True 4 bedroom 2 bath home in the magnificent Sierra Montana subdivision. Well maintained interior with neutral color palette, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings. A beautiful kitchen, spacious Master bedroom and a private backyard are just a few of the many features you'll fall in love when viewing this home.

If you're looking to make a move to the incredible city of Surprise, please plan to attend our open house this Saturday, October 13th from 11am to 2pm for a Spooktacular time!

Mature landscaping provides shade and natural beauty to the front of this beautifully nestled home.

This spacious kitchen with a HUGE island and an abundance of maple cabinetry is wonderful for meal preparation and entertaining.

Can you envision yourself in this private oasis with lush grass, a covered patio and well appointed pavers?

If you would like to see more of this listing Click Here . Or Continue your Home Search. Call me at (602) 518-5232 or email me at tonia.vickery@gmail.com to learn more about this listing! 

We hope to see you Saturday, October 13th at our Open House! Follow the signs near Waddell Road & Cotton Lane!

Posted in My Listing Updates
Oct. 2, 2018

Tonia Talks REALestate-September 2018 Phoenix Update

Supply Continues To Rise In The Middle

(Seller Price Reductions up 46% and 61% in these Price Ranges)

For Buyers: 

Overall supply is down 9.6% compared to last September. At first glance that's nothing new. However, for those of you who pay close attention to our monthly infographic (I know you're out there), you have no doubt noticed that last May supply was down 15.5%, June supply was down 12.2%, July was down 11.1% and August was down 9.9% from last August. What this means for buyers is that the Greater Phoenix market is still in short supply, but it's subtly becoming less bad. Most significantly, supply continues to increase between $200-$400K. Last month we reported an 8.1% increase in listings between $200K-$250K since May, that is now 9.7%. Between $250K-$300K, supply has risen 15% in only 8 weeks. Between $300K-$400K, supply has slowly risen 10% since January. All other price ranges are either declining in supply or following their normal seasonal trends. This is great news for buyers; more choice in the marketplace means less negotiating pressure. However, don't expect sale prices to plummet anytime soon. The first price to respond to supply shift isn't a sale price, it's a list price in the form of a price reduction.

For Sellers:

Despite the increase in supply between $200K-$250K, there hasn't been a correlating increase in weekly list price reductions from sellers yet. However that is not the case for the market between $250K-$300K where weekly list price reductions have risen 61% since January. This isn't an indicator that sellers are becoming desperate. Make no mistake, there are very few desperate sellers in this marketplace. There are, however, many optimistic sellers who may be taming their expectations. Average annual price appreciation per square foot remains between 3.5% - 5.0% for sales between $200K-$400K, so it's still a seller's market despite recent developments. Expect prices to continue increasing at least through the remainder of 2018. 

(Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report)

Aug. 29, 2018

Tonia Talks REALestate-August 2018 Phoenix Update

Supply between $200K-$250K has Risen 8.1% since May and Seller Price Reductions Are Up 7% in Popular Price Range

For Buyers:

If your budget lies somewhere between $200,000 and $400,000 for a home, there's good news for you. Supply between $200,000 and $250,000 has been  rising gradually over the past 12 weeks. After dropping 15% from 2,300 listings in January to 1,944 in May, it has since risen 8.1% to 2,101 listings in August, placing it only 6.7% below last year's count instead of 18% below like it was 3-4 months ago. Listings between $250,000 and $400,000 have also risen sharply 5.3% from 4,791 to 5,044 over the past 4 weeks, placing them only 0.2% below last year's count of 5,053 listings. The increase in competition has resulted in a notable 7.3% increase in weekly seller price reductions from average of 778 week in June to 835 in July. 56% of year-to-date sales in Greater Phoenix have been between $200K-$400k so this increase in supply should come as a little bit of relief for the majority of buyers. 

For Seller:

If you have a home listed between $200,000 and $400,000, then you make up 48% of everything that's listed in the MLS. Listings under contract in this price range have averaged 7.4% higher in volume than 2017 all year, until now. Over the last two weeks, including the end of July through the first week in August, listings in escrow have dropped to 2.2% below last year's level. Buyer activity is expected to slow seasonally from the peak in April through the end of the year; however open contracts have dropped 26% since the 2018 April peak compared to a lower 20% drop in 2017 over the same time frame; all while corresponding supply has been rising. Sellers haven't seemed to notice this sharper decline as their average asking price per square foot has soared from just 3% higher than last year in March to as high as 7% higher in July. The average sales price per square foot was up 5.9% in July, compared to 4.6% in June. However, price is a lagging responder to shifts in supply and demand. We will have to wait and see if buyers accommodate sellers' price expectations given that they have more to choose from in the marketplace right now.

(Commentary and Infographic Credit: Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report)

To get a FREE and INSTANT what's your home worth report click here

Aug. 28, 2018

Coming Soon-9833 W Utopia Rd

This highly upgraded 2 bedroom 2 bath home in the highly sought after Westbrook Golf community will be hitting the market very soon! Countless upgrades make it one of the most desirable homes in this 40+ active adult community.

As you can see, the street name "Utopia" is very fitting for this picture perfect backyard space.

If your list of must-haves include move in ready in a prime location, look no further than this rare Westbrook beauty! Listed at only $269,900! 

If you would like to see more of this listing Click Here. Or continue your Home Search. Call me at (602) 518-5232 or email me at tonia.vickery@gmail.com to learn more!

Posted in My Listing Updates
July 30, 2018

Tonia Talks REALestate-July 2018 Phoenix Market Update

Waiting to Buy Means Less Closet Space or Higher Payment 

For Buyers:

Hearing cries for more affordable housing supply, developers have sold more new homes in the low $200's this year; selling 35% more than they did last year within the same time frame. However, the under $200,000 market remains neglected for additional supply. As of May 2018, only 6% of new homes sold were under $200,000, 37% were between $200,000 and $300,000 and 41% were between $300,000 and $500,000. This means that properties under $200,000 will continue to appreciate faster than any other price point and homes sold in this price range are only getting smaller. The annual average home size sold between $100K-$200K, new and resale combined, is currently 1,390sf compared to 1,454sf last year. That's a loss of 64sf and roughly the size of a couple of closets. Since 2014, the annual average home size sold has consistently hovered around 1,975sf. Those buyers who didn't want to sacrifice living space paid an average of $22,000 more for a 1,975sf home in the past year. 

For Sellers:

Greater Phoenix is officially in the seasonal summer slowdown and contracts in escrow are expected to continue declining overall until the end of the year. The peak of the market for contract activity usually hits at the end of April, as it did both this year and last year. So far levels have dropped 17% from the peak, which is closely following last year's drop of 18% between April and July. If the 2018 market follows last year and previous years, we can expect contracts in escrow to drop about 4% per month until the end of the year. This would be considered perfectly normal, anything more could indicate a non-seasonal drop in demand. 

(Commentary credit: Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report)

July 2, 2018

Tonia Talks REALestate-June 2018 Phoenix Market Update

Is the Greater Phoenix area "Overvalued"? Surprisingly, mortgage payments are lower than they were 13 years ago.

For Buyers:

Interest rates have been increasing along with the inflation rate as of late, which has spawned a strong of headlines about affordability. While the rate hike has knocked some buyers out of the market without a doubt, general affordability hasn't taken a big hit yet. According to the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo, buyers making a median family income could still afford 65% of what sold in the Valley last quarter. A measure between 60-75% is considered normal.

Let's look at the historical cost of a 1,900sf home in Greater Phoenix, for example. In March 2005, a home that size would run $281K on average. Today that same home would be $309K, $28,000 more (+10%). However, the interest rate back then was 5.9% compared to 4.5% today, meaning that the principal and interest payment has dropped nearly $100 from where it was 13 years ago for the same home. At the same time, the median family income rose from $58K to $69K according to HUD (+19%). Which is why despite recent increases in interest rates, the affordability of real estate in the Valley is still considered very good.

For Sellers:

Last April Corelogic released a report ranking the Greater Phoenix area as "overvalued." In fact, they placed 37% of our nation's top 100 metropolitan areas in that category. As of May, after 6 years higher-than-normal appreciation rates, the monthly average sales price per square foot has finally reached its place along the long-term 3% appreciation line established between 2000-2003 before the 2005 bubble and 2008 crash. Meaning that if we had fallen asleep in 2003, and the last 15 years were just a long horrible dream, we would have woken up today and not known anything had happened. Prices are where they would have been had the market followed the average long term-rate of inflation. That brings to light that current appreciation rates of 6% or more are no longer sustainable in the long term. However that doesn't mean that prices will "peak" or "crash" anytime soon. Most likely as demand slowly wanes, prices will go flat and hang out until they once again fall in line with the rate of inflation, but don't expect that to happen in 2018. Supply and demand measures today indicate another 3-6 months of positive appreciation for the majority of homes priced below $400K.

~Commentary and Infographic courtesy of Tina Tamboer, Cromford Report

May 31, 2018

May 2018 Real Estate Market Update

Curious how the Phoenix Metro Residential Real Estate market has evolved over the past 12 months? 

For Buyers:

Supply under $200K has continued to drop rapidly, but the $175K-$200K range has accelerated its decline over the past month far more dramatically than any other price range. After being consistently 30-35% below last year, the active supply level dropped a whopping 18% in a 3-week period putting the current count for this group 44% below last year. Single family homes only make up 41% of active listings under $200K, but they account for 69% of actives between $175K-$200K. As more buyers are looking to condos and townhouses for affordable housing, supply for attached homes under $200K has dropped 33% over the last year. However, condo supply between $200K-$300K has actually risen 10% while single family homes in the same price point have dropped 15%.

For Sellers:

We are officially at the peak of the market seasonally for listings in escrow. Over the next few weeks, especially as temperatures reach over 100 degrees in the Valley, expect to see gradual decline in buyer contracts that will continue through the end of the year. This is a seasonal trend that consistently happens every year and in every price point, even in the frenzy market under $200K. The one exception is the luxury market over $500K. While it's typical to see a decline at the beginning of Summer like everyone else, escrow counts tend to drop for a couple months and then go flat until the end of the year. In fact, luxury supply drops more than buyer activity does in the Summer making it a great time to list luxury property for those willing to brave the heat between June and September. 

(Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, with the Cromford Report)

May 6, 2018

New Listing - 13522 W Desert Flower Dr.

Charming 3 bedroom 2 bath home in beautiful Palm Valley! Gorgeous French doors leading to covered patio, mosaic tile backsplash in kitchen, master bedroom split floor plan. Home has brand new interior paint, new window trim and sills and a new AC installed in 2015. 

If you're searching for a magnificent, move in ready home, look no further than this beauty in the Palm Valley area of Goodyear! Listed at only $214,500!

Immediately, you are welcomed with beautiful landscaping and ample parking.

Open living area is great for entertaining.

Kitchen includes ample cabinet/counter space, matching appliances, new microwave, pantry, breakfast nook and mosaic tile backsplash.

Master suite has walk-in closet and full bath with dual sinks.

If you would like to see more of this listing Click Here. Or continue your Home Search. Call me at (602) 518-5232 or email me at tonia.vickery@gmail.com to learn more!